Kenya Election: Review Shows Pattern of Inflated Polls For Uhuru - Damina Advisors

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Challenger Odinga shown casting his vote, has claimed fraud.

By Damina Advisors

In a calculated speed remarkable for an infrastructure challenged African frontier market economy, Kenya’s electoral commission provisionally published on its website over 90% of the results of the country’s August 8 national election in less than 24 hours after the poll closed. The results so far show the incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta leading with a comfortable margin of over 55% of the votes cast.

Kenya’s veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga has cried foul and alleged that the electoral commission’s website was hacked, and that the election was massively rigged in favor of the incumbent.

Odinga has so far not been able to produce concrete evidence to back up his claims. But Odinga’s hunch
may be supported by a strange statistical pattern in the published results.

A thorough analysis of the official demographic patterns underlying the electoral results by DaMina Advisors shows that there is an unexplainable non-random statistically significant average variance of + 9% in all the counties won by the incumbent, (and a consequent -4% loss for Odinga, implying a 13% swing), not explained by a variances in the total number of valid votes cast in same adjoining counties even sometimes within the same province.

The pattern of inflated valid votes cast in incumbent-won counties was nationwide. In the incumbent’s home base of central province the total number of valid votes cast was on average 85% of the total adult population in the county. By contrast on the coast, a stronghold of the opposition the number of valid votes cast averaged 61% of the total adult population.

In Odinga’s ethnic Luo stronghold of Nyanza, the
number of valid votes cast also fell by -14% vis-à-vis Kenya’s ethnic Gikuyu central province heartland
to 71%. Strangely in Nairobi, the very polarized political capital, where turnout is always high, which was previously won by Odinga in 2013, strangely the number of valid votes cast as a percentage of the adult population fell dramatically to 64%, even though nationwide the average valid vote turnout was over 66%.

In the hotly contested Rift Valley, the counties where the incumbent won averaged a valid vote as percentage of adult population turnout of 64%, however in the same province the counties were Odinga won, averaged only 44%, a difference of over 20% - within the same province.

These variances between effective valid voter turnout for counties where Kenyatta won and others where Odinga won within the same province do not make statistical sense – especially since the county by county variance in the total number of valid votes cast in 2017 vis-à-vis 2013 shows that both Odinga counties and Kenyatta leaning counties saw a similar average 20% increase in new voters.

Whether Odinga [74 years old] will concede and fade into history is yet to be seen, but there is no doubt that a close examination of the provisional presidential results from Kenya shows a clever systematic attempt to inflate the number of total valid voters in each Kenyatta won counties, while systematically suppressing the same figures in Odinga counties – even when both counties are in the same province.

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