Electoral Shifts Strongly Favor Obama Ticket

-A +A
0

In addition to Michigan, Nevada and Virginia shifting from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden, twelve states have shifted in the possibility of the result changing between now and November. Of these states, one (Missouri) has shifted in the possibility of changing from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden from “Moderate” to “High.”

[Election 2008]



If the Presidential election were held now the updated assessment shows that the Democratic ticket of Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Senator Joe Biden of Delaware would win 25 states (including the District of Columbia) with 291 electoral votes.

The Republican Presidential ticket of Senator John McCain of Arizona and Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska would win 26 states with 247 electoral votes if the election were held now. The number of electoral votes needed to win is 270.

This updated assessment represents a shift of three states (Michigan, Nevada, and Virginia) and 35 electoral votes from the Republican ticket to the Democratic ticket since the September assessment. A detailed analysis of the shifts in these three states is included.

In addition to Michigan, Nevada and Virginia shifting from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden, twelve states have shifted in the possibility of the result changing between now and November. Of these states, one (Missouri) has shifted in the possibility of changing from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden from “Moderate” to “High.” One state (North Carolina) has shifted in the possibility of changing from McCain-Palin to Obama-Biden from “Low” to “Moderate.” Three states (Colorado, Minnesota, Pennsylvania) have shifted in the possibility of changing from Obama-Biden to McCain-Palin from “High” to “Moderate.” Seven states
(Connecticut, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Washington, Wisconsin) have shifted in the possibility of changing from Obama-Biden to McCain-Palin from “Moderate” to “Low.”

Of the total of fifteen states whose assessments have shifted since September, all fifteen (Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin) have shifted in the direction of the Democratic ticket. None has shifted in the direction of the Republican ticket.

Of those states with “High” possibilities of changing between now and November, all three (Florida, Missouri and Ohio with a total of 58 electoral votes) might move to Obama-Biden. If all of these states do shift, then the result would be 349 electoral votes for Obama-Biden and 189 electoral votes for McCain-Palin.

With two weeks to go before Election Day, the likelihood of the results changing depends on the possibility of one or more new intervening variables. Among them are:

A domestic or international incident that changes the focus of the campaign from the economy to national security

A new revelation about one or more of the Presidential or Vice Presidential candidates

A "keep-down-the-vote" effort in key states, including new-voter registration purges and activities designed to discourage turnout



Arnone can be reached via william.arnone@ey.com

Also Check Out...

THE MECCA OF PIZZA: LOMBARDI'
THE HU: BAND OF THE DECADE
The United Nations Prioritizes
People Of Color Rocked Tanglewood
ISHMAEL REED’S PLAY “THE HAUNTING
CONGRESSWOMAN NORTON WILL