Kenya Opposition Predicted Electoral Theft

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[Africa: Crisis In Kenya]

The following column signed "editorial team" which seems to predict the current crisis in Kenya, appears on the website of one of the Kenya opposition party, Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya (ODM-K), whose presidential candidate was Kalonzo Musyoka; the article apparently was posted long before the elections last week. The major opposition candidate Raila Odinga, who asserts that his party won the election, represents Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), which is distinct from ODM-Kenya. The column on ODM-Kenya's website asserts a US role in developments leading up to the elections including the reemergence of former President Daniel arap Moi, who is believed to have stolen hundreds of millions of dollars, as a kingmaker. The column asserts that it was only after US assurances that Moi did not flee Kenya or hand power over to the army after his electoral loss to the coalition that then included Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga, five years ago. The State Department did not return calls from The Black Star News seeking comment.


There appears to be an anti-ODM-Kenya conspiracy designed to prevent the Party from taking over power after General elections in December.

At the heart of the conspiracy is former President Mr. Daniel arap Moi, sitting President Mwai Kibaki and the Kenyan security apparatus.

Since it became abundantly clear that Honorable Mr. Raila Odinga is seeking to become Kenya’s next President through ODM-Kenya, we have been informed by our Intelligence Networks at home and abroad that both Moi and Kibaki “vowed to humiliate Raila at all costs” because both of them believe that they will lose at a political and personal level if Raila becomes President of the Republic of Kenya.

How did Moi emerge from retirement to begin a campaign of calumny against ODM-Kenya and Raila Odinga? When Narc took power in December 2002, Moi was a worried man because he didn’t know what would happen to him and his fortunes in a post KANU government.

For the first three years of Narc rule, Moi kept away from confrontational politics because he left behind a legacy of unmitigated corruption, human rights violations, brutal political assassinations, multiple ethnic cleansing, horrendous economic sabotage and a host of unacceptable ills that could easily have landed him in prison if the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) government was serious in bringing former political and economic criminals in our country to justice.

The main reason why Moi did not flee Kenya as it became clear that he was losing power is because President George Bush phoned President Kibaki and urged him not to interfere with Moi because the US government had a responsibility to protect its stooges who had delivered.

Bush was in the middle of the anti-terror war and prevailed upon Moi to hand over power peacefully if he is defeated in exchange for US government protection through important contacts with the new Kenyan government and Moi was convinced.

If Moi hampered a peaceful transition by handing over power to the military as he had initially planned, he could have precipitated a crisis in Kenya and this could have complicated the anti terror war Bush was pushing, given that neighboring Somalia was in deep anarchy with Islamic fundamentalists in total control of the situation. Even as Moi was being humiliated at Uhuru Park after handing over power to Kibaki, Moi banked on two things. The Americans and keeping his mouth shut on the political scene. For the former President, it was a “wait and see” policy.

The compromise between George Bush and Kibaki gave rise to an invitation of Kibaki as a “State guest” in Washington soon after the former DP leader took over power. Moi was afraid that the likes of Raila Odinga had joined government and that the breed of politicians who had suffered under the former President could push for a trial of Moi so that he could spend the rest of his life behind bars.

When Raila was appointed a Minister in Kibaki’s goverment, Moi continued to turn on his seat, not because Raila was a direct threat but because of fear that a united Narc government was the kind of development that could trigger his high blood pressure to rise. But when Kibaki failed to honor the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and a split began to emerge within the Narc ruling class, Moi began to get a breathing space. The celebration was however short-lived.

Moi’s political fever began to rise again when a Commission of Inquiry led by Honorable Gor Sungu was set up to find out who killed former Minister of Foreign affairs and International cooperation Dr. Robert Ouko.

In fact, Moi and his cohorts like former Minister Nicholas Biwott were sweating constantly as the Inquiry also continued. The nightmare scenario for Moi was if he would be forced to testify before the Commission.

Then, Kibaki set up the Goldenberg Commission which was also another source of constipation for Moi because for the former President, he was bound to land in serious problems within the Court system if the enquiries were to go to the bottom lines of the issues that were under inquiry. For Kibaki, the Commissions of Inquiries were going nowhere as long as they were seeking to pin down Moi because the President had signed a deal with Bush to “leave Moi alone”.

By the time the Sungu Commission submitted its report to the government, the political situation in Kenya had also changed dramatically. Kibaki had disagreed with Raila and a clear fall-out had emerged between MPs allied to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the emergent Mount Kenya Mafia which took over State House and which continue to rule Kenya today with impunity.

Apart from the splits in Narc, the Kibaki government began to face charges of high corruption. The Anglo-leasing scandal had been born while other high profile corruption scandals were in different stages of development. The Kenyan people who supported Kibaki were disillusioned because Kibaki had failed to deliver a new Constitution in 100 days as he had promised.

Teachers had not been paid their salaries, inflation continued to rise across the country, MPs were looting the economy through a million salaries, poverty was on the increase, insecurity had driven Kenyans into a state of panic, workers were suffering under starvation wages, the economy was down, tribalism in the appointment of public officers had emerged in the new regime, the West had turned against Kibaki while Kibaki himself was being seen as a “lame duck” President.

Faced with internal crisis, growing resentment, unfulfilled election promises and mounting political opposition which the President could not immediately deal with, Kibaki decided to begin talking to Moi.

In 2006, Kibaki and Moi held four secret meetings, the first one having been organized soon after the government lost the Referendum. When the secret meetings could no longer be hidden, Kibaki went public and claimed that he was seeking “advise” from Moi.

Many Kenyans were bewildered. Moi was back in State House and the former President must have been relaxed that at long last he had nothing to fear. This was the beginning of Moi’s come back into active politics. He abandoned retirement.

As contacts between Moi and Kibaki intensified, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) was also consolidating its position after winning the Referendum. At first, Kibaki and his strategists thought that they had the upper hand in the situation. But when the government lost the Referendum and ODM began to move in the direction of a political party, Kibaki found it wiser to begin relying on Moi for strategic help.

Kibaki’s moves to bring in opportunists from Ford people and KANU under a “Government of National Unity” failed to do the trick because the Nyachaes and other recycled garbage which had been brought in to help had no power over political events around ODM-Kenya.

For Kibaki, the central point was that KANU was involved in ODM-Kenya and a winning formula had to be based on getting KANU away from ODM-Kenya or hijacking the Party altogether to get a leadership that could not work with Raila Odinga in his quest for power.

The problem was that Uhuru Kenyatta (KANU Chairman) and other top officials like Ruto and Henry Kosgey were deeply immersed in ODM-Kenya and something needed to be done. Top KANU leaders were not listening to Moi and since KANU was Moi’s bargaining chip with Kibaki, Mr. Moi needed to take over KANU and there was no better way of doing so than changing its leadership using the tools that were available to him.

A day before Uhuru Kenyatta and Company were thrown out of KANU to pave the way for Nicholas Biwott and his sycophants to take over the Party, Moi met Kibaki at State House and the President was briefed. A coup to take over KANU through the National Delegates Conference (NDC) had been set.

When Moi met Kibaki shortly before the coup, the discussion centered around ensuring that the new group that was set up to take over KANU would be registered by the government as soon as possible to give the new Office legitimacy in the eyes of the public. The coup did succeed and Moi was the first high profile personality to declare his support for the new Chairman Nicholas Biwott and his team. Uhuru Kenyatta and his group in ODM-K had been rendered party-less.

However, the victory was short-lived. Through the support of ODM-K, Uhuru Kenyatta and other officials who had been overthrown began a systematic fight back. A meeting was held at ODM-K headquarters and a decision was taken that the Party had to help Uhuru Kenyatta regain KANU leadership because of the significant role KANU played in solidifying ODM-K.

Sustained public demonstrations, police attacking and brutalizing ODM-K members in the streets with batons and tear gas canisters together with constant trips to the Office of the Registrar of Societies were developments the government had not prepared to deal with. 


As the case went to court and Kenya became the focus of attention especially by International Human Rights Organizations and foreign governments, the backlash began to have a negative impact on the government’s already tattered image. The Court was directed by the government to revert KANU leadership back to Uhuru Kenyatta and his group. Both Moi and Kibaki had lost in the second round, the first loss having been the referendum. However, the two did not give up and a final defeat is awaiting them when elections are eventually held.

In December last year, Moi informed Kibaki that he would need about Ksh 5 billion if he wanted to win the elections. Moi himself promised to raise Ksh 2 billion and informed Kibaki that it was his responsibility to raise the balance of Ksh 3 billion if he wanted the Presidency back after the December elections.

For Moi, his part of the bargain was easy because he has a fortune of Ksh 300 billion mainly hidden in foreign bank accounts. Besides, he still controlled a section of the KANU fund raising machinery especially links he created when he was in control.

Moi does not trust ODM-K with his immense business empire and his dirty political past. It is for this reason that he is trying his level best to derail ODM-K. The former President needs to be warned that if he continues to frustrate ODM-K and the Party goes ahead to win elections, there will be no reason to prevent the issue of his prosecution from being brought on the table by ODM-K. It is in his interest to remain in retirement because he will not be able to change what he could not do in his 24 years in power.

To raise funds, Kibaki turned to Arab businessmen and other wealthy groups and individuals seeking investments in Kenya. He approached China and promised that his government would work with the Chinese especially on key areas of interest but that it was important that he wins the next elections scheduled for December. A contact informed us that the Chinese accepted to help Kibaki although they also pointed out that they would remain open and work with any winning government.

In the meantime, new ideas of destabilizing ODM-K also came up. The Steadman poll was brought into the strategy to undermine Raila Odinga and to intensify the war between Raila and Kalonzo Musyoka. This was after an attempt to deprive ODM-K political status failed because when Kibaki’s strategists registered the Party’s name before the real ODM-K solidified into a Party, they did not know that the Party’s think tank had already worked on an alternative way of going round the problem.

Attempts to deny ODM-K registration also failed when the Party mobilized demonstrations outside key government offices, much to the embarrassment of the government. While Steadman is trying to split Odinga and Kalonzo to destabilize ODM-K, they have rested Kibaki on a “comfort zone” by projecting him as the winning candidate.

The problem now is that the polls themselves are not working to change the minds of millions of Kenyans who have the vote because the sophistry is so amateurish that even the man in the street does not believe the phony projections.

For ODM-K insiders, the situation with Kalonzo is shaky and he may quit the Party if he is defeated at the nomination stage. We are not allowed by Party Headquarters to comment on this issue at the moment but we hope that Kalonzo and his supporters will realize the need for unity within the Party because ODM-K is the winning Party.

After a series of defeats at the strategic level, we have information that both Moi and Kibaki are planning to revive the KANU case to hand over victory to Biwott so that the former Moi confidant can take over KANU, drag it out of ODM-K and use it to bolster Kibaki’s Party – Narc-Kenya.

This will fail because ODM-K has a plan that we will not go into right now. The conspiracy to prevent ODM-K from seizing power in December will, most likely, fail because Kenyans have shown that they are ready for a new leadership.

Surely, Kibaki needs to go!


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By James Wachai

Your article is full of propaganda. You don't even know that Raila Odinga ran for president on ODM not ODM-Kenya. This blatant display of ignorance about what's going on back home disqualifies you from commenting on political upheavals going on there.

Editor's Note & Correction: An earlier version did not make clear the distinction between ODM and ODM-K.

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