Obama Still Leads McCain: Zogby

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[Elections 2008]


Democrat Barack Obama holds an edge over Republican John McCain in the race for U.S. President, but his recent win of his party’s nomination has not produced a big bounce, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.

Obama leads McCain, 47% to 42%, with 12% saying they prefer someone else or are not yet sure about their selection in the race, the poll shows. He holds a double-digit lead among women, while McCain holds a six-point lead among men.

Both candidates are winning about four of every five voters from their own party; but Obama enjoys a substantial 22-point lead among political independents.

Obama wins almost all of the support from African American voters, while McCain leads by a 48% to 38% margin over Obama among white voters.

Among Hispanics, Obama leads with 54% support, compared to 44% support for McCain. The live operator telephone survey was conducted June 12-14, 2008, and included 1,113 likely voters nationwide.

It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.

As he did in his race against Clinton in primary contests earlier this year, Obama leads among voters under the age of 35, while McCain leads among voters age 55 to 69, and the two are deadlocked among voters age 70 and older. They are essentially deadlocked in that all-important age demographic of voters 35 to 54 – Obama wins 46% support to McCain’s 43% support. This age cohort is important because it represents the largest bloc of voters and because those voters, perhaps more than any other age group, are facing first-hand many if not most of the key issues confronting the nation, including food and transportation costs, education and health care concerns, retirement anxiety, and those dealing with the care of aging parents.

This was a group that was decisive in the Democratic Party primary season.

Obama leads among all household income groups except those living in households with incomes above $100,000 per year. Interestingly, he also leads among those who said they shop at Wal-Mart at least once a week. This is a demographic group that typically skews politically conservative.

Adding minor presidential candidates Ralph Nader, a liberal, and Bob Barr, a libertarian, to the equation, there is little effect on the contest, as both minor candidates garner three percent support, and Obama maintains a single-digit lead over McCain. However, as he has in earlier polling, Barr pulls 10% support among those who consider themselves very conservative, an indication of possible trouble for McCain. Among mainline liberals, Nader wins 7% support in a four-way contest.

With the nation staggering under skyrocketing fuel prices and a continuing mortgage and housing crisis, likely voters nationwide said they narrowly trust McCain over Obama to best manage the U.S. economy, the survey shows. The judgement was decidedly split, with 45% saying McCain would best manage the economy, compared to 40% who said Obama would be the better economic manager. Another 15% said that they were either unsure or that neither McCain nor Obama would be the best manager of the economy. Men were split on the question, with 44% favoring Obama and 43% favoring McCain. Women gave McCain the nod by a 48% to 37% margin.

A Majority Are Wary of Obama’s Inexperience; One in Three Wary of McCain’s Age

Asked whether Obama has the necessary experience to be President, 54% said that he does not, while 43% said they believe he is experienced enough for the White House. Among Democrats, 62% said they think he has enough experience, while 36% agreed that he was too inexperienced to be President. Among those age 35-54, a majority – 55% – said they think he has too little experience to be President. Among men, 55% said he was too inexperienced, while 53% of women agreed.

Asked whether age should be a factor in considering whether John McCain, who would be 72 at the time of his swearing in should he be elected, is fit to be President, 34% said it should be considered. Another 65% said they do not think it should be a factor. A majority in all age demographic groups said they do not think it should be a factor in his candidacy, though half of all Democrats said it should be considered. Just 18% of Republicans agreed it should be a factor.


For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit: http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1315

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