Obama Surges Ahead Of McCain 47% to 45%, In Reuters/Zogby Poll

[Election 2008]

Democrats coming home and an increase of support from women helped Democrat Barack Obama take a 47%-45% lead over Republican John McCain, the latest Reuters/Zogby nationwide telephone survey of likely voters.

The poll, conducted of 1,008 likely voters from Sept. 11-13, 2008, is a seven-point reversal from the August 14-16 Zogby/Reuters poll that showed McCain ahead, 46%-41%. In that survey, 13% were not sure or favored another candidate. Now, that number is down to 8%, with their movement primarily to Obama.

The change from a month ago may correlate with the perception among likely voters that the McCain campaign has been the more negative.

Overall, 44% say McCain’s campaign has been the more negative, compared to 31% who say the same about Obama’s campaign.  Among self-described political independents, 48% said they think McCain’s campaign has been more negative.

As the table below shows, it has been a rollercoaster summer, but McCain is still better off than he was in July, when he trailed, 47%-40%.

When Libertarian Bob Barr and Independent Ralph Nader are included in the horserace question, Obama and McCain are tied, 45%-45%.   Both Barr and Nader registered between 1%-2%. Last month, McCain led by five points in the four-way race.

The perceived tone of the campaign looks like a factor in the latest turn in Obama’s favor. Here how those results broken down by party affiliation:

Which campaign is more negative? McCain 44%; Obama 31%.

Exactly one-half of voters said the economy was the most important issue in deciding whom to choose as President. No other issue garnered more than 9%.

For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:

http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1334

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